How to read Soccer Odds Tracker

Soccer Odds Tracker follows every match kicking off in the next three days and records how the 1X2, Over/Under 2.5 and Both Teams To Score prices move, what betting exchanges have matched, and what tipster sites say. It is market-first: it shows what the market is doing. There is no betting model here.

bet365 is the reference price. Every comparison and every grade uses bet365's price, because that is where the bets are placed. The "best available" price from other bookmakers is shown for information only.

Colours and badges

▼ −3.1% green: the price has shortened (gone down). Shorter prices usually mean money coming in.
▲ +3.1% red: the price has drifted (gone up).
BIG STEAM STEAM DRIFT BIG DRIFT - see flags below.
Countdowns turn amber inside 1 hour and red inside 15 minutes; LIVE 1-0 once the match is on and FT 2-1 at full time.
The dot in the top bar is the collector: running, late, stopped (prices are not being updated). Click it for the Status page.

The Matches table

Open (tickbox): Tick it to open Match Details for that match. Clicking the match name does the same.
KO: Kick-off in your own time zone. The page corrects your device clock against the server, so countdowns are right even if the device clock is a little off.
Starts in: A live countdown: "2d 04:12:09" is two days, four hours. Then LIVE with the score, FT at full time, or Postponed / Cancelled.
Price columns: bet365's current decimal price for each selection of the market chosen in "Prices" (1X2, Over/Under 2.5 or BTTS), with the arrow and % change since the tracker first saw that price. A grey italic price means bet365 has no price yet and the market median is shown instead.
fair %: The market fair probability (see below).
Books: How many bookmakers price the 1X2 market.
Flags: Every STEAM / DRIFT flag on the match, in any market, with the market and selection.
Tips: Tipster votes for the 1X2 result: H home, D draw, A away.
Model: The ratings model's probabilities for the chosen market, in %. Display only.

The table loads the first 250 matches and more as you scroll (or with "Show more"). It refreshes every minute and keeps your filters, which are also remembered on this device.

Prices, moves and the market

Market consensus: Bookmakers only: Betexplorer's list of bookmakers, plus Unibet (from Kambi) when Betexplorer lacks it, plus Flashscore's bet365 when Betexplorer lacks it. Exchanges are shown separately and never counted as bookmakers. The market price is the median bookmaker price.
Move (%): Each bookmaker's latest price against the first price the tracker stored for it. The market move is the median of those per-bookmaker moves. "First seen" is not always the opening price: the tracker may first see a match hours or days after the bookmakers opened it. bet365's opening price, where the source publishes one, is shown separately on Match Details.
Books in / out: Bookmakers whose price shortened (in) or lengthened (out) by at least 1%.
Market fair %: Each bookmaker's complete book has its margin removed (the power method) and the median is taken per selection. Fair odds = 1 ÷ fair %.
bet365 vs market: bet365 price ÷ median bookmaker price − 1. Positive: bet365 pays more than the typical bookmaker for this selection; negative: it pays less. Both prices include a margin, so this is the fair comparison for someone who bets only at bet365. Information, not a tip.
Best available (info): The highest price among bookmakers and exchanges, ignoring prices more than 25% away from the median (usually errors). For information only.
Implied %: On the odds chart, 1 ÷ price. It includes the bookmaker's margin, so the selections add up to more than 100%.

Flags: steamers and drifters

STEAM: The market move is −5% or more (the median price shortened by at least 5%) and a majority of bookmakers moved in, with at least 2 of them.
BIG STEAM: The same at −10% or more.
DRIFT: The market move is +5% or more and a majority of bookmakers moved out, with at least 2 of them.
BIG DRIFT: The same at +10% or more.

A flag needs the bookmakers to agree, so one bookmaker cutting its price is not enough. The Steamers page lists every flagged selection for matches not yet started, biggest move first.

Results and Performance

Results: Every match that has finished, with its score, the outcome of all three markets, and each flag the tracker raised before kick-off - the mark it was raised at (3 h, 1 h, 15 min), the market move, bet365's price at that moment, and whether that selection won. Filter by window, market, flag type, mark, won or lost, or search for a team. It reads the frozen snapshots, so it shows what the page showed at the time.
Performance: The same flags added up: how many were raised, how often they won, and the return from staking one unit on each flagged steamer at bet365's price in the snapshot. Drifters are counted for the strike rate only, never staked. Below that, the graded record of the market, the tipster sites and the ratings model.

Match Details

Selection cards: bet365's price now, from first seen and from opening, the market price and fair %, bet365 against the market, bookmakers in/out, exchange prices and the best available price.
Odds movement: One chart per selection. bet365 is the bold line, the market consensus the second line, exchanges are dashed, and any bookmaker can be added from the legend. Lines are steps because a price holds until it changes. Hover (or tap) for the values at that moment.
Movement windows: The move over the last 24 h, 6 h, 1 h and 15 min: bet365's own move and the median bookmaker move with books in/out. After kick-off the windows end at kick-off.
Bookmakers: Every bookmaker's first and latest price, when it last changed and how many times.
Second opinions: The market favourite, the tipster favourite (how many sites pick it), the model favourite and where the exchange money is. "All agree" means at least two of market, tipsters and model name the same selection.
Betting insights: Plain sentences written from the numbers: big moves, bet365 paying clearly more or less than the median bookmaker, a sharp move in the last hour, where the exchange money is, what tipsters pick.
Snapshots: At 3 h, 1 h and 15 min before kick-off the page's numbers are frozen. Records are graded from these frozen numbers only.

Match Details refreshes every 30 seconds in the last 2 hours before kick-off and during the match, otherwise every minute.

What "money" means here

Money and volume come only from betting exchanges (Betfair, Matchbook and similar): the total amount matched on each selection. It covers exchange customers only. Bookmakers such as bet365 do not publish how much their own customers stake, so there is no "bet365 money" figure anywhere.

Matched - money traded on the exchange so far; it only grows.
Share - this selection's part of the market's matched money.
Last 1 h / 3 h / 24 h - how much was added in that time ("money in").

Most leagues have little or nothing matched; Over/Under 2.5 and BTTS are thin even in the big leagues. Each exchange reports in its own currency.

Tipsters and the ratings model

Tipsters: Predictions collected from tipster and prediction sites, saved before kick-off (sites change their tips afterwards). The consensus averages the probabilities of the sites that publish them and counts every pick as a vote. Record = the site's hit rate on graded 1X2 picks, or "new".
Ratings model: SoccerEdge's existing ratings model, reused as one display-only voice. It trails the market and is graded like a tipster. It is not a betting model and nothing on this site is a betting model.

Records

After matches finish, the Records page grades each voice using only what was on the page before kick-off: every tipster site, the ratings model, the market consensus favourite (the benchmark), backing bet365's favourite at its 1 h price, and the pre-registered STEAM / DRIFT signals. Hit rate, average probability, log-loss (lower is better) and, for staked rows, the return on stake at bet365's price. Grades build up as matches finish; judge after weeks, not days.

How often prices are read

By time to kick-off (the nearest kick-offs are served first when the collector is busy):

What	> 24 h	6–24 h	3–6 h	1–3 h	15–60 min	< 15 min
bet365 1X2 (Flashscore)	3 h	1 h	30 min	15 min	5 min	2 min
Bookmakers 1X2 (Betexplorer)	3 h	1 h	30 min	15 min	5 min	2 min
bet365 O/U 2.5 + BTTS	6 h	2 h	1 h	1 h	20 min	20 min
Bookmakers O/U 2.5 + BTTS	6 h	2 h	1 h	1 h	20 min	20 min

A check that finds no prices backs off: every 6 h far out, 3 h inside 24 h, 1 h inside 6 h, 20 min in the last hour.
Nothing is read in the last 45 seconds before kick-off and nothing is stored at or after kick-off.
Today's matches are re-listed every 3 minutes and the next three days every 30 minutes; Unibet prices every 5 minutes; each tipster site every 3 hours.
Prices are stored only when they change, with the time the source says the price was set.